Canada: Economic Report on Ontario Points to Aging Workforce

The "Ontario's Long-Term Report on the Economy," issued by the Ministry of Finance, states that, among other things, Ontario's working-age population share (ages 15-64) will decrease from 69.4% of the population in 2009 to 61.5% by 2030. In absolute numbers, the working-age population is expected to increase by 13.5%, but that is about half the growth seen over the previous two decades.

Population aging and the slowing pace of growth in the working-age group could contribute to a slower rate of future real gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Since participation in the job market is significantly lower for older age groups, population aging will be a factor in slower labour-force growth to 2030. As the large cohorts of baby boomers reach retirement age, the number of people turning 65 is projected to surpass the number entering the working-age group (at age 15) from 2017 until the early 2030s. As a result, the working-age group will grow solely because of net migration during this period.

While looking to immigration, the report also encourage policies and workplace initiatives that promote more flexible work arrangements in all segments of the working-age population and specifically put forward facilitating phased retirements as a way to encourage skilled workers to remain in the workforce longer, either full time or part time.

Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance News Release (January 22, 2010)

Urban Institute Issues Series of Reports on Trends and Challenges Facing Older Workers in Recession

The Urban Institute's Retirement Policy Program recently released a number of analyses detailing new trends and challenges facing older Americans during the recession. Included in this series are:

• "Unemployment Statistics on Older Americans" As the recession has increased joblessness among older Americans, this report provides graphs and tables that report unemployment rates and how they have varied by age, sex, race, and education since 2007.
• "Work Ability and the Social Insurance Safety Net in the Years Prior to Retirement" This study examines disability benefit receipt, income, and poverty status for a sample of Americans as they age. The results underscore the precarious financial state of most people approaching traditional retirement age with disabilities.
• "Older Adults' Labor Force Participation since 1993: A Decade and a Half of Growth" Charts showing that labor force participation rates—-the percentage of adults working or looking for work—-increased sharply for older men and women between 1993 and 2009.

Source: Urban Institute Retirement Policy Program " New Employment, Social Security Take Up Rate and Disability Benefits Data" (January 15, 2009)

Montana: State Economist on Challenge of Aging Workforce

Barbara Wagner, an economist with the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, predicts that the the aging workforce is going to be affecting Montana’s labor markets in the next few years--much sooner than other places in the country. Writing in the Big Sky Business Journal, she suggests that now is the time to plan for changes an aging workforce will bring by developing flexible worker training and adopting new workplace practices.

Montana has a median age of 39.3 compared to the national average of 36.8--the 8th oldest population in the country. In addition, the traditional working age population aged 16 to 65 is expected to start declining in Montana starting in 2012, while the U.S. population aged 16 to 65 is not expected to decline before 2030. In fact, already over 19.3% of Montana’s workers are over the age of 55 and approaching retirement.

According to Wagner, overall demographics are also going to affect job demands. Thus, an aging population will put stress on the health care sector, dramatically increasing employment needs, while a decreasing youth population could lead to a decline in educational employment. However, she notes that increased training needs could be a counter-vailing influence.

Among other things, she offers two solutions: (1) reduce the need for more workers while still growing our economy by increasing worker productivity, and (2) increase the number of workers either from in-migration of workers from other states, or by increasing labor force participation from its current level. While some of these changes will occur naturally, more will be needed in increased training programs and economic infrastructure to meet employment needs.

Source: Big Sky Business Journal "Montanans Getting Older" (January 6, 2010)

China: Study Points Pension Reform to Deal with Coming Age Wave

A report from the Center for Strategic & International Studies warns that the aging of China’s population could usher in a new era of slower economic growth and mounting social stress as tens of millions of Chinese arrive at old age over the next few decades without pensions and with inadequate family support. The authors of "China’s Long March to Retirement Reform: The Graying of the Middle Kingdom Revisited" evaluate recent government efforts to prepare for the challenge and outlines an ambitious new reform plan and argue that, despite the current economic situation, delay in addressing address the long-term aging challenge is not an option.

Among other things, Richard Jackson, Keisuke Nakashima, and Neil Howe present a plan that provides for a universal poverty backstop that would protect all Chinese against an uncertain old age, and that would also create a national and fully portable system of funded retirement accounts. This would allow China to care for a much larger number of older people without overburdening its smaller working generation and help China to maintain rates of savings, investment, and living standard growth as its population ages. With respect to retirement age:

The minimum retirement age would initially be set at 60 for men and 55 for women, just as it is in the current basic pension system. These low retirement ages are necessary because today’s older workers often do not have the skills to compete in China’s rapidly modernizing economy. But as these workers are replaced by younger and higher-skilled cohorts and as China’s population ages, longer work lives will not only become feasible, but essential. Our plan therefore provides for gradually raising the minimum retirement age for both sexes to age 65 by 2030, after which it would be indexed to longevity.

Sources: Center for Strategic & International Studies Summary (April 22, 2009); Reuters "Age wave to come crashing soon over China's economy" (April 27, 2009)

Canada: Study Finds Current Economic Downturn Will Not Solve Demographic Problems; Governments Must Switch Gears

The current economic slowdown may help ease, but will not stop the coming shortage of
available workers in Nova Scotia, specificially, and in Canada, generally. According to the report "The Developing Workforce Problem: Confronting Canadian Labour Shortages in the Coming Decades" prepared by Dalhousie University Professor Emeritus Dr. Jim McNiven for the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies (AIMS), Canada would need "a sustained recession over some 20 years to cope with the demographic crunch we have created for ourselves."

The combination of the baby boom generation aging and hitting traditional retirement age, the decline in birth rates, the failure of immigration to pick up the slack, and stagnant productivity mean that government policy must be overhauled. Programs that helped boomers, such as job creation, employment insurance, and nearly retirement all helped open jobs for the boomers are no longer what is needed. Instead, McNiven suggests a combination of approaches to alleviate the pending crisis:

• better immigration and child care policies to increase the population;
• encourage an increase in the productivity rate; and
• increase the labour force participation rate by reaching out to segments of the population with traditional low rates and encourage people to stay working beyond "Freedom 55."

Sources: Atlantic Institute for Market Studies Media Release (January 7, 2009); Halifax Chronicle Herald "Freedom 85, or why you’ll work forever" (January 10, 2009)

European Commission Issues Second Demographic Report on Aging Societies

The European Commission has issued its second demographic report to provides the facts and figures that are needed to assess where member states stand in responding to the challenges of demographic change. The 2008 report--"Demography Report 2008: Meeting Social Needs in an Ageing Society"--focuses on the aging society and changing family and household patterns in the EU. Among other issues addressed in the report are: What about the working population? Are people working longer? How are older people involved in society, besides work?

With respect to the baby boom generation and work, the report finds that the growth of the working-age (20-59) population is slowing down fast and will stop altogether in about 6 years; from then on, this segment of the population will be shrinking by 1 to 1.5 million people each year. While employment rates at age 60 are ten percentage points higher than in 2000, but there is still much room for improvement.

Employment after the age of 65, the typical statutory retirement age in many Member States, is very rare: only about 13% of men aged 65-69 years and 7% of women are still in employment. Part-time working could be a good way of achieving a gradual transition from work to retirement, but only about 11% of men aged 55-64 work part time and 38% of women.

Other findings include:

• There are major differences in the social activities of older workers across countries--more so than across socioeconomic groups in a given country.
• Rapid ageing requires adequate policy responses: opportunities to stay active on the labour
  market and in society; access to goods and services that preserve older people's autonomy; solidarity with the dependent and protection of their dignity.
• Member States can raise labour force participation, thus creating a better balance between the active and the retired.
• In about ten years, the potential for
  further employment growth will be exhausted; productivity will become the main
  engine of growth.

Source: European Commission News Release (November 21, 2008)

Europe: Research Suggests that Varying Health Conditions across Europe Will Impede Increasing Older Worker Participation Rates

Investigators at Leicster University have published a paper in Lancet finding that substantial inequalities in ife expectancies and healthy life years at 50 years exist within EU countries. Thus, without major improvements in population health, the target of increasing participation of older people into the labor force will be difficult to meet in all 25 EU countries.

Healthy life years varied more than life expectancy, with a range for men from 9.1 years in Estonia to 23.6 years in Denmark and for women from 10.4 years in Estonia to 24.1 years in Denmark. According to a BBC report on the study:

Lead researcher Professor Carol Jagger, from Leicester University, said: "What we have here, for the very first time, is data we can really compare.

"And it really questions whether the countries with the longest life expectancies are the healthiest.

"In the case of the UK, we are looking pretty average, but slightly better than our life expectancy figures suggest."

She said that the figures might be useful to governments who are trying to work out the number of older people able to remain working, or who will need health care.

Sources: Lancet "Inequalities in healthy life years in the 25 countries of the European Union in 2005: a cross-national meta-regression analysis" (November 17, 2008); BBC News "Periods of healthy old age 'vary'" (November 17, 2008)

Canada: Study Evaluates Worker Understanding of Anticipated Retirement Income

According to research published by Statistics Canada, about two-thirds of Canadian "near-retirees" anticipate that their retirement income will be adequate or more than adequate to maintain their standard of living once they have left the workforce. In addition, individuals who receive advice are more likely than others to express confidence in the adequacy of their retirement savings to maintain their standard of living in retirement.

Of the 7.2 million Canadians aged 45 to 59 in 2007, about 80% or 5.7 million were actively or recently employed and had not previously retired. Of these 5.7 million near-retirees, 71% received financial advice from at least one source, and 50% received advice from at least one source in the financial industry. However, 29% do not receive any advice.

These results come from two articles by Grant Schellenberg and Yuri Ostrovsky drawing on the results of the 2007 General Social Survey (GSS) on family, social support and retirement: "The retirement plans and expectations of older worker", which examines when individuals plan to retire, the certainty they have in their plans, and their confidence in their financial preparations, and "The retirement puzzle: Sorting the pieces", which examines the retirement advice and information they receive.

Source: Statistics Canada The Daily (September 9, 2008)

United States: Evaluation of Demand for Older Employees

An analysis of data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that while the slowing economy has dampened the demand for older workers, the number of workers 55 and older is still growing significantly--shattering any myth that older workers are particularly vulnerable in this economic downturn. According to the Challenger report, employment among those 55 and older grew by 3.7% from July 2007 to July 2008 while the number of employed aged 20-44 declined by an average of 1.3%.

John Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said that “The fact is pared down companies may increasingly rely on seasoned veterans to get them through the downturn. They may cost more in salary and benefits, but their experience and knowledge make them highly valued.”

The Challenger report also suggests that it is also a myth that older workers are for the most part underemployed, seemingly able to find only part-time, hourly wage positions in retail and other low-skill service industries, as the biggest employment gains for workers 55 and older occurred within management, professional and related occupations. In addition, the report notes that the preference for older workers can be seen in the significant drop in the amount of time it takes job seekers 50 and older to find new positions:

The median job search for those over 50 winning positions in the second quarter lasted 4.2 months, according to the latest Challenger quarterly survey of discharged managers and executives. That is just about two weeks longer than younger job seekers, whose median job search time in the second quarter was 3.6 months.

Source: Central Valley Business Times "Report: Older workers still in demand" (August 21, 2008)

South Korean Workforce Continues to Age

According to South Korea's National Statistical Office (NSO), the number of workers over 40 has increased at a fast pace while those in their 20s and 30s is declining. Over all, employees over 40 rose 3.5% to 13.2 million at the end of 2007 from a year earlier, accounting for 56.4% of the total workforce; this compares with 55.1% in 2006 and 53.7% in 2005.

Similar growth in older workers was also seen in older age groups: those in their 50's accounted for 17.5% of the total in 2007 (as compared to 16.6% in 2006), while those in their 60's accounted for 11.2% of the total in 2007 (as compared to 10.8% in 2006).

A report on the NSO results in The Korea Times states:

"With the rapidly aging population, a growing number of older Koreans, including retirees, are entering the labor market as they are forced to keep on working due to inadequate retirement savings. Also, a larger number of the elderly decide to get jobs for reasons other than financial, including health benefits," an NSO official said. He said the majority of older workers engage in lowly paid positions, usually involving manual labour in the services sector.

Source: The Korea Times "Workers Over 40 Takes 56% of Workforce" (March 20, 2008)

Australia: Survey Suggests Older Workers the Key to Growth

Workers aged 55 and older, not generation Y, appear to be the answer to the ongoing skills and labor shortage for Australian employers, according to the results of research by Econtech commissioned by Mercer Consulting. Accordingly, employers should shift their focus from young to old, and particularly older women, to maintain productivity.

Specifically, Mercer reports by 2012, workers in the labor force aged 55+ will increase by 14% while workers aged 25-54 will increase by only 5%. In addition, women aged 45+ will increase by 12% while the number of men in the same age group will increase by only 6%.

According to Head of Mercer’s retirement business, Mr Tim Jenkins, employers--particularly in industries facing increased employment demand--"have to hold onto older workers about to exit the workforce.” In addition, he said:

Australian employers have to re-define what the average daily and weekly job looks like and how it is remunerated in order to hold onto older workers, maintain productivity and keep downward pressure on wages that, according to our research, are forecast to rise at an average annual rate of 4.2% between now and 2012.

On the practical level, he posed a number of questions to employers such as "how many jobs really need to be full-time, all of the time? How many part-time workers are needed to deliver current and future productivity requirements? How do you fill entry level jobs when the available labour force is dominated by experienced 55+ workers?" Employers have to change the stigma around part-time work not equating to a career or a promotion, and "employers are going to have to create more part-time roles as career roles."

Source: Marcer Press Release (March 5, 2008)

Poland: Older Workers Offer Solution to Demographic Challenge, but Must Overcome Prejudices Against Them

Following on the Polish government's proposals to help make people over the age of 50 more active in the workforce, the Warsaw Business Journal has published an article looking at the demographic challenge facing the Polish labor market. While noting that older workers could be what employers are looking for--offering experience, loyalty and flexibility, the article also suggests that "first the significant obstacle of prejudice must be overcome."

Only 41.5% of people aged 50 to 64 were professionally active in 2006, making Poland's employment rate for this group one of the lowest in the European Union, only beating out Malta. According to an Ipsos Poland survey done for Academy for the Development of Philanthropy (ARFwP), high unemployment in the 1990's and the beginning of the 2000's decade forced a large number of older people to exit the workforce in order to accommodate the younger generation, a trend that was further increased by high labor costs.

According to the Warsaw Business Journal article, labor market experts believe "the government's program is not enough to retain seniors in the workforce or lure them back." Instead, Poland needs a wide range of coordinated initiatives, such as the development of NGOs that would specialize in issues facing older people, such as the AARP in the United States.

On another front, employers also need to show more good will and flexibility in the employment of seniors. However, mere sympathy and pity are not arguments which appeal to entrepreneurs, according to Joanna Tokarz, project coordinator at ARFwP. She is quoted as saying: "The employer has to think in terms of the market, and they should be shown the benefits of employing over-50s in the first place." To enable this ARFwP has launched a project called Zysk z dojrzałości ("Profit from Maturity") in cooperation with Britain's Beth Johnson Foundation, to promote "age friendly" strategies and age-management solutions among employers.

Source: Warsaw Business Journal "Veteran workforce" (March 3, 2008)

Europe: Economic Affairs Commissioner Addresses Summit on Demographic Crunch

Economic Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia is warning that European society is at risk of losing its dynamism if it does not develop a coherent approach to an ageing population and decreasing workforce. He spoke at a oned-day summit Friends of Europe conference entitled "Europe's looming demographic crunch". The Friends of Europe says this crunch will be felt dramatically in the years to come, as by 2050, 30% of the population will be over 65 and only two people of working age for each
pensioner.

In his address--"Investing in the future: an agenda for addressing Europe's Demographic Challenge", Alumnia identified the decreasing share of the working age population as a "major factor" influencing stuttering economic prospects. Thus, one prong of the strategies that European states must adopt is to raise employment rates, especially among women and older workers.

The best way forward is to promote flexible working arrangements where employment security for workers is provided by adequate skills. Such a flexicurity approach will help modernise European labour markets and ensure that people have access to employment throughout their working lives. The success of this model relies on active labour policies combined with good education and training systems that allow people to gain new skills whether they are 16 or 60.

Sources: EurActive "Almunia warns of looming demographic crunch in Europe" (February 5, 2008); Friends of Euroipe Press Release (January 31, 2008)

South Korea: Workers Over 65 Are Over 11 Percent of Workforce

According to published reports, workers aged 65 or above accounted for 11.2% of South Korea's total workforce in 2007, up from 10.8% in 2006 and 5.9% in 1985. The National Statistical Office (NSO) reports that the number of senior workers reached 1.52 million in 2007--up 75.1% percent from 869,000 in 1997--as the number of Koreans aged over 65 increased by 66% percent to 4.87 million in 2007 from 1997.

Local companies increasingly prefer to hire workers on an irregular and temporary basis with little job security and lower wages to meet their manpower demand. Older workers who have already retired from previous jobs are willing to accept the lower-paying jobs.

Source: The Korea Times "Senior Workers Account for 11% of Total Workforce" (February 10, 2008)

Europe: Survey Shows More Companies Responding to Demographic Changes, Responsive to Older Workers

According to Adecco Institute, European companies are waking up to the demographic challenge of an aging and shrinking workforce, with an increased number of companies having started to analyze their internal age structure and more large companies planning to hire more employees aged 50 and older in 2008 versus 2007. These are the results of Adecco's second demographic survey: "Facing Europe’s Demographic Challenge: The Demographic Fitness Survey 2007".

Applying its Demographic Fitness Index (DFX), which measures the preparedness of companies to cope with the demographic crunch on a scale of 100 to 400 points, Adecco also shows there is much to be done. Overall, European companies averaged 182 points, with Germany and the UK leading with 186 index points each, followed by Italy (182), Spain (180) and France (174). The DFX measures career management, lifelong learning, knowledge management, health management, and diversity management.

The increase in the number of companies analyzing age structures indicates an increased awareness of the issue: 40 percent of all European firms, up from one third a year ago, have conducted an analysis of the overall age structure of their organizations. Medium-sized firms have demonstrated the most significant improvement over the past year.

However, only in France and the UK has this improved level of knowledge of the age structure, so far, led to an increase in long-term staff planning. In the survey, no European company planned their overall staff needs more than 18 months ahead.

One of the most encouraging findings of the 2007 Demographic Fitness Survey is that more and more of the large European companies are willing to hire older employees. 16 percent intend to hire more older employees in 2008 than in 2007, and the share of companies who plan to hire fewer people over 50 has decreased from 42 percent to 34 percent.

Source: Adecco Institute Press Release (January 31, 2008)